Bitunix Analysts: Inflation and Debt Issues Remain Unresolved, Consumer Confidence Weakens, the Shadow of US-China Trade Expands Risk Aversion

ChainThink report, October 11, the University of Michigan announced the preliminary reading of the consumer confidence index for October at 55, which is slightly higher than market expectations but still at a low level since May, indicating that high prices and employment uncertainty continue to suppress household spending willingness. At the same time, the one-year inflation expectation remained at 4.6%, and the long-term expectation stayed at 3.7%, reflecting deep concerns in the market about the persistence of inflation and policy risks.

The White House confirmed that the government shutdown entered its tenth day, with the layoff plan already initiated, further weakening investors' confidence in the strength of domestic demand in the US. Amid rising market volatility, US stocks suffered heavy losses on Friday: the Dow fell nearly 2%, the Nasdaq plunged more than 3.5%, and the S&P 500 index recorded its largest single-day drop since April. The crypto market also experienced a chain reaction, with total liquidation amounts across the network reaching 19.3 billion USD within the past 24 hours, and long positions accounting for more than 80%, highlighting a rapid reversal in market sentiment.

Bitunix analysts suggest: from a structural perspective, this round of decline was not triggered by a single news event, but rather by a resonance of macroeconomic and policy uncertainties. Trump's sudden announcement of a comprehensive tariff on China further increased risk-off demand, and the market is re-pricing the risk of the "policy conflict period." In the short term, volatility will remain high, and investors should closely monitor the synchronized changes in the US dollar and Treasury yields, which will serve as leading signals for judging the adjustment rhythm of risk assets. The market is shifting from "rate cut trades" to "liquidity defense," which will become the core theme over the next few weeks. The crypto market's position distribution shows that institutional investors' bearish sentiment remains strong, while most retail traders still favor bullish views, indicating continued market divergence. BTC may test the 108,000 USD support level again.