The probability of "government shutdown" on Kalshi rises to 70%

ChainThink report, on September 30, according to data from the prediction platform Kalshi, there is a 70% chance of a U.S. government shutdown on Wednesday.

Earlier today, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released an emergency plan for a government shutdown, stating that all operations will be suspended during the shutdown and no economic data will be released.

Currently, U.S. lawmakers are leaning towards forcing a federal government shutdown, which may prevent policymakers, business leaders, and investors from accessing critical data needed to assess the U.S. economy. Stephen Stanley, Chief Economist at Santander US Capital Markets, stated that the next Federal Reserve meeting will be held on October 28-29, and without the latest government data, it would be difficult to justify another rate cut.

Some officials have taken a cautious stance, hoping to see more data. Neil Bradley, Chief Policy Officer at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, stated that a government shutdown will not push the U.S. economy into a recession, but it will come at a cost and increase the uncertainty that businesses and business leaders are already dealing with.