ChainThink message, December 26, at 16:00 (UTC+8), Bitcoin experienced its largest annual settlement in history, amounting to a nominal value of $23.7 billion. Historical market performance following past settlements is summarized below:

December 29, 2023 (Annual Large Settlement), nominal value approximately $11 billion, peak pain point around $42,000.

Before expiration: Market remained under extreme compression, with BTC price ranging narrowly between $42,000 and $43,000.

After expiration: The "cage" suppressing volatility dissipated; BTC rapidly surged in volume over the following days, initiating a strong directional move toward $48,000 at the start of 2024.

March 29, 2024 (Quarterly Settlement), nominal value approximately $15 billion, peak pain point around $65,000.

Before expiration: Market oscillated between $60,000 and $70,000 amid Bitcoin halving expectations, exhibiting high volatility and active hedging activity that temporarily suppressed price action.

After expiration: Following gamma hedge unwinding, BTC swiftly broke upward, propelled by halving anticipation to surpass $70,000, marking the acceleration phase of the bull cycle.

June 28, 2024 (Quarterly Settlement), nominal value approximately $17 billion, peak pain point around $60,000.

Before expiration: Market entered a correction phase, with BTC consolidating narrowly around $60,000, increasing selling pressure, and clear gamma pinning effect observed.

After expiration: Short-term volatility intensified post-settlement; BTC initially declined before rebounding, but overall maintained a corrective trend without immediate strong bullish momentum.

September 27, 2024 (Quarterly Settlement), nominal value approximately $18 billion, peak pain point around $62,000.

Before expiration: Affected by Fed policy, price ranged between $55,000 and $65,000, with moderate liquidity and hedging activities compressing the trading range.

After expiration: Post-settlement volatility increased; BTC broke upward, benefiting from dovish rate cut expectations, triggering a rebound rally toward the $70,000 level.

December 27, 2024 (Annual Large Settlement), nominal value approximately $19.8 billion, peak pain point around $75,000.

Before expiration: Market peaked during bull phase, with BTC oscillating between $70,000 and $80,000; call option skew weakened upward pressure, while holiday thinness reduced liquidity.

After expiration: Post-hedge unwind, BTC continued its bull momentum, quickly breaking above $80,000, with year-end Christmas rally further fueling price appreciation.

March 28, 2025 (Quarterly Settlement), nominal value approximately $14 billion, peak pain point around $85,000.

Before expiration: Amid regulatory tailwinds, price fluctuated between $80,000 and $90,000; optimistic sentiment coexisted with short-term downside risks, with gamma providing floor support.

After expiration: Volatility expanded post-settlement; BTC broke above $85,000, launching a strong directional move toward $100,000.

June 27, 2025 (Quarterly Settlement), nominal value approximately $14.5 billion, peak pain point around $102,000.

Before expiration: Mixed market sentiment, with significant price volatility.

After expiration: Short-term pullback post-settlement, but overall trend remained upward, without extreme volatility observed.

August 29, 2025 (Quarterly Settlement), nominal value approximately $13.8–$14.5 billion, peak pain point around $116,000.

Before expiration: Thin holiday liquidity led to BTC consolidating between $110,000 and $120,000, with enhanced gamma trap effect.

After expiration: BTC briefly dipped below the peak pain point but rebounded swiftly; volatility expanded but stabilized quickly, maintaining the ongoing bull structure.

December 26, 2025 (Today’s Annual Large Settlement), nominal value approximately $23.6 billion, peak pain point around $96,000.

Before expiration: Due to thin holiday liquidity combined with rising precious metal prices, BTC traded in a narrow range between $85,000 and $90,000, with strong gamma hedging significantly suppressing volatility.

After expiration: Expected to see the "cage" dissipate post-settlement, leading to a significant increase in market volatility—potentially breaking above the $90,000 range. Some analysts remain bullish, projecting a move toward $100,000 and even initiating a new-year upward surge.