Next Week's Macro Outlook: The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision on Thursday, followed by a press conference by Powell.

ChainThink report, October 25, next week, due to the continued shutdown of the U.S. government, fewer important data will come from the U.S., but many central banks will hold monetary policy meetings, including the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan. The following are the key points that the market will focus on during the new week (all times are Beijing Time):

Thursday 02:00, the Federal Reserve announces the interest rate decision;

Thursday 02:30, the Federal Reserve Chair Powell holds a monetary policy press conference;

Friday 01:15, 2026 FOMC voter, Dallas Fed President Logan delivers a speech;

Friday 21:30, 2026 FOMC voter, Dallas Fed President Logan delivers a speech;

Before gaining a clearer understanding of inflation and the labor market, Powell is unlikely to significantly change his wording regarding future policy paths while announcing a 25 basis point rate cut. Therefore, considering the recent tensions in trade relations and the ongoing government shutdown, Powell and his colleagues' statements on Thursday may appear slightly dovish, but the extent may not be significant. Even dovish members like Waller are reluctant to pre-commit to a series of rate cuts. If the Federal Reserve questions the market's expectation of a 100 basis point rate cut in October, the risk of traders being disappointed will increase. (Jinshi)