Bitcoin Bulls Predict $200,000 by Year-End, Driven by Whales and ETFs to Resurge "Bull Market"

ChainThink report, October 3rd, according to CryptoQuant data, the apparent demand for Bitcoin is growing at a monthly rate of approximately 62,000 coins, a context similar to the fourth quarters of 2020, 2021, and 2024, when prices experienced significant increases. Historically, sustained demand growth often provides support for price appreciation.

This expansion is mainly driven by whales and ETFs. The balances of large holders are increasing at an annualized rate of 331,000 Bitcoin, a trend stronger than 255,000 in Q4 2024, 238,000 in early Q4 2020, and contrasting sharply with the reduction of 197,000 during the weak market in 2021.

ETFs may add further momentum. In Q4 2024, these products purchased a total of 213,000 Bitcoin, with a 71% increase in holdings, and it is expected that they may add more positions before the end of this year. However, for demand to truly translate into a breakout, price momentum remains crucial. On-chain valuations show that the "realized price" of traders is an important threshold at $116,000.

Once the price breaks above this level, it means the market has re-entered the cyclical indicator range of the "bull market" phase, and could open a valuation range of $160,000 to $200,000 in the fourth quarter.