6 Valuation Methods: Can Ethereum Reach $10,000 in This Cycle?

Original Title: Can Ethereum Reach $10,000 in This Cycle? A Calculation Using 6 Valuation Methods
Source: Biteye

ETH has rebounded from its April low and now stands at the $4,500 mark.

If 2024 marked the start of a bull market ignited by Bitcoin ETFs, 2025 could very well be Ethereum’s turn to shine.

This article uses 6 valuation methods to analyze whether ETH can surge to the $10,000 threshold!

1/8 ETH/BTC Ratio

First, we compare ETH and BTC through relative valuation.

The ETH/BTC ratio has been relatively stable over the long term, but its current value of 0.0372 places it in the lower-mid range of the past 5 years, suggesting ETH may be "undervalued."

Based on the 5-year average ETH/BTC ratio of 0.0518, assuming BTC stays around $120,000, the corresponding ETH price would be $6,214.

If we reference the previous bull market’s ETH/BTC ratio of 0.06–0.08, with BTC still at $120,000, ETH would range from $7,200 to $9,600.

2/8 Ethereum ETFs and Institutional Holdings

As ETH prices surge, off-exchange capital is pouring into Ethereum ETFs. Many overlook the tangible impact of Ethereum ETFs and institutional buying—beyond boosting sentiment, they represent massive buying pressure.

According to data from @SoSoValueCrypto, Ethereum spot ETFs hit a new all-time high, with a net inflow of $1.019 billion on August 11 (Eastern Time). Total net asset value (NAV) of Ethereum spot ETFs now stands at $25.712 billion, with holdings reaching approximately 6 million ETH, accounting for 4.96% of ETH’s current circulating supply.

Compared to Bitcoin’s ETF ownership percentage of 6.48%, there is still room for growth. Additionally, 70 Ethereum reserve entities hold about 3.49 million ETH, representing 2.89% of the circulating supply. BMNR has publicly stated its goal to eventually hold 5% of the global circulating supply of Ethereum. After deducting 36.17 million ETH staked and locked, the free-float supply is only around 75.1 million.

Price projections below rely on a simple assumption: the percentage reduction in free-float supply will proportionally increase the price per token.

New price = Current price × (Target free-float / Current free-float)

Combining ETFs and institutional reserves, they currently hold 7.85% of total supply. If this proportion rises to 10% (with staking ratios remaining stable), the free-float would shrink to approximately 72.52 million, pushing the price to around $4,647. At 15%, it would reach about $5,070; at 20%, it would approach $6,000.

This excludes demand-side amplification effects, so actual gains could be higher. Moreover, incremental capital from ETFs and institutions typically takes time to settle, meaning ETH’s price anchor will be lifted steadily over the long term rather than spiking short-term.

3/8 Metcalfe’s Law

Many focus on price fluctuations and narrative hype when valuing ETH, but overlook the long-term support of on-chain activity for network value. Metcalfe’s Law states that a network’s value is proportional to the square of its number of active users. For Ethereum, this translates to: Network value ≈ k × (Daily Active Addresses)².

In simple terms, "more users mean a more valuable network"—a squared increase in users drives exponential growth in market capitalization.

According to BitInfoCharts, as of August 13, 2025, Ethereum’s mainnet had approximately 971,486 daily active addresses (DAA) in the past 24 hours. With ETH currently priced at $4,500 and a circulating supply of ~120.7 million, its market cap is ~$543.1 billion. Plugging into the formula gives a current coefficient k ≈ 0.576 (USD/address²).

Using this k, we can project prices under different activity scenarios:

• If DAA reaches 1 million: ~$4,768 (+6%)
• If DAA reaches 1.1 million: ~$5,769 (+28.2%)
• If DAA optimistically hits 1.3 million (90% of historical highs): ~$8,058 (+79.1%)

This projection assumes stable staking and circulating supply, where increased activity directly amplifies network value and thus ETH’s price. Unlike ETF and institutional buying, Metcalfe’s approach reflects organic growth in on-chain usage and economic activity, relying not on external capital inflows but on compounding network effects.

Notably, if activity and liquidity align—with rising on-chain transactions, fees, and burn rates, combined with ETF and institutional supply contraction—ETH’s price will be driven by both supply scarcity and network expansion, potentially surging faster than single-factor predictions.

4/8 NVT Model

NVT is essentially the "crypto version of P/E ratio." Given a reasonable NVT multiple (referencing historical ranges) and projected daily transaction volume, we can reverse-calculate market cap and price.

NVT = Market Cap (USD) / Daily On-Chain Transfer Volume (USD). Currently, NVT = 518B / 14B = 37.

ETH’s historical NVT range is roughly 60–110, and its current level is on the lower end. Assuming NVT ranges from 60/80/90/100/110 over 6–12 months, with daily transfer volumes fluctuating between $7B–$14B:

6-Month Scenarios

• Conservative: NVT 70, daily transfers $7B → Market cap ≈ $490B → Price ≈ $4,059
• Baseline: NVT 80, daily transfers $9B → Market cap ≈ $720B → Price ≈ $5,965
• Optimistic: NVT 90, daily transfers $12B → Market cap ≈ $1.08T → Price ≈ $8,947

12-Month Scenarios

• Conservative: NVT 75, daily transfers $8B → Market cap ≈ $600B → Price ≈ $4,971
• Baseline: NVT 90, daily transfers $10B → Market cap ≈ $900B → Price ≈ $7,456
• Optimistic: NVT 100, daily transfers $14B → Market cap ≈ $1.4T → Price ≈ $11,598

In other words, Ethereum’s network effects are already supporting a valuation range of $5,000–$12,000.

5/8 On-Chain Cash Flow Model

Treating Ethereum’s on-chain "revenue" (fees + MEV, etc.) as cash flow helps measure network value. As Ethereum’s application ecosystem expands, growing "revenue" can boost ETH’s valuation.

Asset management firm VanEck predicts, based on this logic, that with staking rewards integrated into ETFs and other tailwinds, ETH could approach $6,000 in 2025. In a 2023 report, VanEck projected that if on-chain fees and usage continue to rise, ETH could reach approximately $11,800 by 2030. (See chart below:)

6/8 Technical Analysis (Candlestick Charts)

@CryptoPainter_X notes that while ETH currently faces some historical selling pressure from the 2021 high supply zone, its 4-hour technical structure shows gradually rising highs and lows with no significant breakdown.

From the ASR channel, ETH is oscillating upward above the orange average pressure band—a strong pattern indicating market demand is gradually absorbing supply near historical highs.

The daily ASR channel shows signs of breaking above the average pressure band. A similar breakout in early 2024 led to a run toward the daily overbought line (~$5,600).

Another possibility is a repeat of late 2024, where prices face extreme resistance at the orange channel’s upper edge.

Overall, the outlook remains positive, with a mid-term chance of ETH testing $6,000.

7/8 Scenario Projections by Crypto Analysts

Several crypto analysts and media outlets have provided scenario-based price forecasts for ETH:

1. Crypto analyst @VirtualBacon0x believes ETH has entered a new macro bull market. Under a baseline scenario, ETH could reach $6,000–$7,000 by late 2025, with a long-term target of ~$10,000 by mid-2026. In an extremely optimistic, full-market mania scenario—where BTC hits $200,000 and ETH outperforms—Virtual Bacon estimates ETH could peak at $16,000.
2. Wall Street analyst Tom Lee stated in a July Bankless podcast that ETH should at least rebound to $4,000 in the short term. By late 2025, $7,000, or even $12,000–$15,000, would be reasonable.
3. Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes set a late-2025 target of ~$10,000 for ETH under an optimistic bull scenario. In a July 2025 article, he emphasized that U.S. policy shifts toward credit expansion would inject liquidity, while renewed Western institutional interest in Ethereum would act as key catalysts.
4. Crypto media Bankless proposed a super bull scenario of $15,000 for ETH in its 2025 outlook. Its annual forecast suggested AI-driven hype could spark a new crypto market frenzy, with Ethereum potentially hitting five figures under optimistic conditions—assuming ample liquidity, narrative-driven trends (e.g., AI+Crypto), and Ethereum’s continued dominance in DeFi.

8/8 Editor’s Summary

Combining these seven valuation methods, ETH has a strong chance of reaching $6,000–$8,000 in 2025. If market sentiment and on-chain activity continue to grow, breaking $10,000 is possible, with an extremely optimistic range of $12,000–$15,000.

This is not just "price speculation" but a convergence of on-chain data, capital behavior, and macro liquidity. Regardless of whether it hits $10,000, ETH, as crypto’s infrastructure, has already established itself across multiple valuation frameworks.

Risk Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. ETH prices are subject to market sentiment, on-chain activity, policy changes, and other factors, resulting in high volatility. Please make decisions based on your risk tolerance and assume full responsibility for investment risks.